Wednesday, March 20, 2013

March Madness!



I'm very fond of statistics and mathematical models.  If you take my favorite sports time of the year, NCAA men's basket ball tournament time, and statistics, you have an opportunity for me to spend hours developing different brackets based on past performances.  I've developed a Six Step process influenced by statistics.  I've developed a Excel randomization model based on the steps to remove my biases.  Over the years, several of my brackets were in the top 5% of ESPN, CBS, NCAA, etc.  One bracket was in the top 0.09%.  I've listed the steps below.



STEP One:
  • Declare victories for Number 1 and 2 seeds in the first round.  2012 was a figment of your imagination.

STEP Two:
  • Pick your final four.  The bracket will be won and lost on these four teams.
  • Do NOT pick these seeds:  7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14 (15 and 16 go without saying).
  • Do NOT Pick all Number 1 seeds (It only happened once)
  • Pick two number one seeds.
  • For the remaining seeds, pick either 1, 2, 3, 4.  If you like disappointment, venture out on the wild side and pick a 5,6 or 8 seed.
  • Note: You can have a bracket with zero or one number 1 seed.  It's riskier though.

STEP Three:
  • You want to make at least 26 points in the First Round.  There can be plenty of upsets, but to minimize point loss, just pick three solid upsets.
  • 9 and 10 seeds win 40% of the time.  11 and 12 seeds win 30% of the time.  13 and 14 seeds win 20% of the time.
  • If you want some fun during the first couple of days, you can pick up to seven upsets, but you will increase your chances of being below 26 points.

STEP Four:
  • Pick three solid upsets in Round 2.
  • Never pick a 9 seed to win.  13 and 14 seeds hardly ever win.
  • 5, 6, 10, 11, and 12 seeds have a 50/50 shot at winning.   7 and 8 seeds only have a 30% chance.

STEP Five:
  • Pick 3 to 4 upsets from Round of Sweet Sixteen.
  • Never pick a 12, 13, or 14 seed.
  • Number 3 seeds have a 50/50 shot.  4, 6, 10, and 11 seeds have a 30% chance.
  • Remember to pick your final four teams that you selected in Step Two!

STEP Six:
  • Pick the Final Two Teams and your winner.

There you go. You now have selected a tournament bracket based on statistics.  Remember, this is just for fun.  The technique may help you and it may not.  Let the basketball begin!

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

Pray for the Children's Ministry


Let no one despise your youth, but be an example to the believers in word, in conduct, in love, in spirit, in faith, in purity.
1 Timothy 4:12

But Jesus said, “Let the little children come to Me, and do not forbid them; for of such is the kingdom of heaven.”
Matthew 19:14


When I moved to Alabama before the rest of my family arrived, I spent several Sundays attending different churches in the area.  I found one that I thought was the perfect fit.  The church had expository preaching, a huge choir, a large youth program, and a passion for the Lost.  After the kids enjoyed Vacation Bible School, I concluded that we had found our new church home.  I was wrong.

After attending regularly for several weeks, my kids confided in me that they didn't like their Sunday School class.  They wanted to try a new church.  Their reaction set me back.  I was sold, but my kids weren't.

Families go to church where their children want to go to church.

In the past, families were oriented around what the parents wanted to do and the kids just tagged along.  Nowadays, families are dominated by the kid's activities and what they want to do.  So, parents will take their kids to Chuck E Cheese even though they desperately don't want to go.  Even unbelievers will take their kids to church if they want to go.

The 2004 Barna Group, a research and marketing firm for the Christian ministry , study indicated that 43% of all Americans accept Jesus Christ before reaching the age of 13.  The study further revealed that 64% of Christians made that commitment before their 18th birthday.    Around 2009, another survey by the International Bible Society stated that 83% of all Christians make their commitment between the ages of 4 and 14.

The most fertile time to reach the Lost is during their Elementary and Middle School years.  Many will come to faith in Christ before they reach High School, or not at all.  Therefore, the church must not only evangelize the families but also the children.

Using the F.L.O.C.K. acrostic, we will pray for the "C", the children, youth, and preschool ministries.  Tonight, let's examine our passage in Matthew first.

Jesus is beckoning the little children.  In the Greek, the word is paidion, a little child, properly, a child under training, implies a younger child (perhaps seven years old or younger), figuratively, an immature Christian.  Jesus further rebukes the disciples insisting that they don't forbid the children.  Elaborating in the Greek, Jesus instructs them not to kóluó, which is prevent, hinder, keep from, because toioutos, of such a kind, like, truly this sort (to denote character or individuality) will inherit the kingdom.

The church hinders children from Christ by making church boring to them.  The church frustrates children by not connecting with them.  As the church, we ask questions that are too easy or too difficult.  We don't include them in church activities.  We don't reach out to them with the Gospel.  We tend to "Disneyify" the experience instead of staying in the Word.

How do we, the church, reach the lost children and teach the believing children?  Paul gives us a very good idea when encouraging Timothy.   Paul first writes that the church should not kataphroneó, despise, scorn, disregard, view down with a negative (hostile) outlook, think little of, esteem lightly, seeing as insignificant or detestable, treat with contempt, pay no regard to the youth, the children, the teenagers, young people.

Paul then points out the traits Timothy should tupos, model, model forged by repetition, correct paradigm based on reliable precedent for others to then follow (i.e. the right example, a believer in Christ).

BELIEVER.
In the Greek, pistós is defined as faithful (loyalty to faith; literally, fullness of faith), believing the faith God imparts.

WORD.
In the Greek, lógos is defined as a word, being the expression of a thought, preeminently used of Christ (John 1:1), expressing the thoughts of the Father through the Spirit.

CONDUCT.
In the Greek, anastrophé is defined as dealing with other men, conduct, life, behavior, manner of life. inner beliefs.

LOVE.
In the Greek, agápē is defined as properly, love which centers in moral preference, benevolence, good will, esteem, typically refers to divine love , what love God prefers.

FAITH.
In the Greek, pistis is defined as faith, belief, trust, confidence; fidelity, faithfulness. come to trust moral conviction (of religious truth, or the truthfulness of God or a religious teacher), especially reliance upon Christ for salvation, assurance, belief, believe, faith, fidelity.

PURITY.
In the Greek, hagneia is defined as purity, chastity, sinlessness, cleanliness.

Pray for your church to reach children with the Gospel, to teach children the Christian life, to provide Christian role models, and to provide abundant supply of workers for the harvest.  Children, youth, and preschool ministries are what the Great Commission is all about.



Go therefore and make disciples of all the nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, teaching them to observe all things that I have commanded you; and lo, I am with you always, even to the end of the age.” Amen
Matthew 28:19-20