March Madness!

I'm very fond of statistics and mathematical models.  If you take my favorite sports time of the year, NCAA men's basket ball tournament time, and statistics, you have an opportunity for me to spend hours developing different brackets based on past performances.  I've developed a Six Step process influenced by statistics.  I've developed a Excel randomization model based on the steps to remove my biases.  Over the years, several of my brackets were in the top 5% of ESPN, CBS, NCAA, etc.  One bracket was in the top 0.09%.  I've listed the steps below.

STEP One:

• Declare victories for Number 1 and 2 seeds in the first round.  2012 was a figment of your imagination.

STEP Two:

• Pick your final four.  The bracket will be won and lost on these four teams.
• Do NOT pick these seeds:  7, 9, 10, 12, 13, 14 (15 and 16 go without saying).
• Do NOT Pick all Number 1 seeds (It only happened once)
• Pick two number one seeds.
• For the remaining seeds, pick either 1, 2, 3, 4.  If you like disappointment, venture out on the wild side and pick a 5,6 or 8 seed.
• Note: You can have a bracket with zero or one number 1 seed.  It's riskier though.

STEP Three:

• You want to make at least 26 points in the First Round.  There can be plenty of upsets, but to minimize point loss, just pick three solid upsets.
• 9 and 10 seeds win 40% of the time.  11 and 12 seeds win 30% of the time.  13 and 14 seeds win 20% of the time.
• If you want some fun during the first couple of days, you can pick up to seven upsets, but you will increase your chances of being below 26 points.

STEP Four:

• Pick three solid upsets in Round 2.
• Never pick a 9 seed to win.  13 and 14 seeds hardly ever win.
• 5, 6, 10, 11, and 12 seeds have a 50/50 shot at winning.   7 and 8 seeds only have a 30% chance.

STEP Five:

• Pick 3 to 4 upsets from Round of Sweet Sixteen.
• Never pick a 12, 13, or 14 seed.
• Number 3 seeds have a 50/50 shot.  4, 6, 10, and 11 seeds have a 30% chance.
• Remember to pick your final four teams that you selected in Step Two!

STEP Six:

• Pick the Final Two Teams and your winner.

There you go. You now have selected a tournament bracket based on statistics.  Remember, this is just for fun.  The technique may help you and it may not.  Let the basketball begin!